10.4M members are on a contract whose Star Rating fell for 2027
October 9, 2026
The headlines say: CMS posted the 2027 Star Ratings on October 8.
Here's what I'd focus on: count the members, not the contracts. A rating is one number on a contract. The people behind it are the ones who call you.
I took every Medicare Advantage member I can match to CMS enrollment, 29,862,383 of them, and put each one on the contract that holds their plan. Then I compared that contract's Overall Star Rating in the 2026 landscape with its Overall Star Rating in the CMS Star Ratings Data Tables posted on October 8.
10,448,632 members, 35.0%, are on a contract whose rating fell. 5,742,301, 19.2%, are on one that rose. 12,245,551, 41.0%, are on one that held. The rest are on contracts where CMS printed words instead of a number in one year or both. I keep them in their own groups and I never turn them into a zero.
A lower rating is not a reason to move a member. It is a reason to review. Knowing who is on one is the first job.
How far the ratings moved
Most of the movement is half a star. That is still the kind of change a member notices on Medicare Plan Finder.
Members by change in Overall Star Rating, 2026 to 2027
| Change | Members | Contracts |
|---|---|---|
| Down 1.5 stars | 104,611 | 5 |
| Down 1 star | 1,636,646 | 27 |
| Down half a star | 8,707,375 | 145 |
| Up half a star | 4,852,242 | 74 |
| Up 1 star | 888,602 | 12 |
| Up 1.5 stars | 1,457 | 1 |
Members with no number in one or both years:
| Group | Members | Contracts |
|---|---|---|
| Rated in 2026, no number in 2027 | 418,315 | 40 |
| No number in 2026, rated in 2027 | 351,687 | 40 |
| No number in either year | 655,897 | 141 |
It depends on the carrier
The same release moved the big carriers in different directions.
Matched members by carrier, 2027 against 2026
| Carrier | Members | Rating fell | Share | Rating rose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealth Group, Inc. | 7,625,827 | 3,459,189 | 45.4% | 367,392 |
| Humana Inc. | 6,398,669 | 310,987 | 4.9% | 3,758,410 |
| CVS Health Corporation | 2,792,953 | 1,955,151 | 70.0% | 208,207 |
| Elevance Health, Inc. | 1,499,802 | 666,452 | 44.4% | 95,857 |
| Kaiser Foundation Health Plan, Inc. | 1,479,425 | 86,357 | 5.8% | 296,466 |
| Health Care Service Corporation | 776,634 | 528,045 | 68.0% | 17,996 |
| Healthfirst, Inc. | 371,777 | 371,134 | 99.8% | 0 |
I count members by the carrier that holds the contract. I do not say why a rating moved. CMS does not say it in these files, and I will not guess.
It depends on the county
Where you work decides how many of your members are in the first group.
Largest states by members: share on a contract whose rating fell
| State | Members | Rating fell | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 2,949,523 | 537,685 | 18.2% |
| FL | 2,813,079 | 1,170,421 | 41.6% |
| TX | 2,263,054 | 1,227,637 | 54.2% |
| NY | 1,833,227 | 747,675 | 40.8% |
| PA | 1,397,269 | 523,669 | 37.5% |
| OH | 1,218,386 | 539,421 | 44.3% |
| GA | 910,781 | 552,396 | 60.7% |
Counties with the most members on a contract whose rating fell
| County | Members | Rating fell | Share | Rating rose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris, TX | 350,282 | 146,739 | 41.9% | 35,744 |
| Maricopa, AZ | 371,205 | 144,440 | 38.9% | 88,523 |
| Queens, NY | 231,920 | 129,422 | 55.8% | 21,723 |
| Miami-Dade, FL | 390,581 | 121,829 | 31.2% | 5,097 |
| Clark, NV | 229,275 | 119,670 | 52.2% | 90,349 |
Clark County has both stories at once: 119,670 members on a contract whose rating fell and 90,349 on one that rose. A statewide number would hide that. This week's free report shows your county.
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How InsurIntel helps
I built InsurIntel as a research tool for licensed agents to prepare for appointments. It never recommends enrolling anyone, and commission never ranks a plan. A Star Rating is one input a member may see. I show the whole picture beside it: what changes on the plan, what the plans left in the county offer, and what it costs.
Start with the members you already serve who are on a contract whose rating fell.
CMS does not report plan enrollment under 11 members in a county, so every count is a floor. Ratings are Overall Star Ratings: the 2026 landscape for 2026, the CMS Star Ratings Data Tables of October 8, 2026 for 2027. Up, down and held count only contracts with a number in both years.
For licensed agents, not for Medicare beneficiaries.